Prepare for President Pence

This post was originally written on September 13, 2020

The president is unpopular. The economy is in the tank. The pandemic rages on. Protests and tear gas have filled the nation’s streets. In a normal election year, the challenger would be a shoo-in. But this is not a normal election.

Mr. Trump’s team has repeatedly demonstrated contempt for democratic norms and the rule of law. They will do whatever it takes to ensure Mr. Trump’s return to office, by fair means or foul. Already, Mr. Trump is using the powers of his office to force voter suppression measures onto the states, but he will not stop there. The possibilities abound: false stories and deepfake videos planted in the media in the weeks before the election; calling out the National Guard to suppress the urban vote in battleground states; hacking poorly-protected electronic voting machines. A bipartisan group is already girding itself for what promises to be the dirtiest election in American history.

If Mr. Biden manages to prevail against this sharply tilted playing field, the next hurdle will be convincing Mr. Trump to leave office. It is not in Mr. Trump’s personality to ever admit defeat; if he becomes convinced that he cannot remain in office, he will look for a face-saving exit. Why suffer through two months of a lame duck presidency, with its rapid attrition of staff, influence, and prestige, only to play a walk-on role at Mr. Biden’s moment of triumph, the inauguration?

Mr. Trump will have more than his ego to worry about: the corruption, nepotism, and incompetence of his administration will spawn legal headaches for many years to come. While Mr. Trump can pardon his children and cronies before leaving office, he cannot pardon himself. This is where Mr. Pence comes in.

The quid pro quo will be straightforward: Sometime between election day and the inauguration, Mr. Trump will resign, handing Mr. Pence the presidency — a brief taste of ultimate glory for a career politician. In return, Mr. Pence will grant Mr. Trump a blanket pardon.

What else will Mr. Pence do with a month or two of the president’s powers, unhindered by the need to seek re-election? That is a scenario worth planning for.

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